Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.